The general election will take place on 4 July, Rishi Sunak has announced in a surprise intervention that means Britain will go to the polls earlier than expected.
The Prime Minister said in a Downing Street speech that he had asked the King to dissolve Parliament, triggering an election within weeks. He told the country: “Now is the moment for Britain to choose its future, to decide whether we want to build on the progress we have made or risk going back to square one with no plan and no certainty.”
Defending the Government’s record, he said: “In the last five years our country has fought through the most challenging times since the Second World War.” He insisted he had acted to protect the public from the effects of the pandemic and cost-of-living crisis, but added: “This election will take place at a time when the world is more dangerous than it has been since the end of the Cold War.”
The statement took place in a downpour of rain leaving the Prime Minister soaking wet, while his words were almost drowned out by an anti-Brexit protester playing loud music outside the Downing Street gates.
Mr Sunak’s announcement came after inflation dropped to 2.3 per cent, its lowest level for almost three years, in an apparent boost to his claims that the economy is improving following the cost-of-living crisis.
But the Conservatives will enter the election campaigns as underdogs due to national polling which has consistently shown Labour around 20 points ahead, a result which implies Sir Keir Starmer will enter No 10 with a landslide victory unless there is significant movement over the coming weeks.
The election, which has to come by January 2025, had been expected in October or November with No 10 repeatedly saying it would be the “second half of this year”.
However, stubbornly high inflation in the service sector despite the headline fall to 2.3%, dampened hopes of an early interest rates cut, with financial observers suggesting the Bank of England would now be unlikely to lower rates until November.
The Prime Minister and his Chancellor Jeremy Hunt had been hoping interest rates cuts would come much sooner – allowing the benefit to be felt in voters’ pockets before the election.
Mr Hunt had also indicated he wished to cut National Insurance by a further 2p in a fiscal event in September but higher borrowing of £20bn fuelled by spending on benefits and lower tax receipts have dealt a blow to this plan. The International Monetary Fund also warned against tax cuts in a report on the UK’s economy on Tuesday which warned of a £30bn financial hole.
It is likely the Conservatives will now campaign on an intention to cut taxes further – the Chancellor has said he would like to reduce National Insurance to zero – and argue their immigration plan is working.
The Prime Minister will be able to argue that the economy has significantly improved under his watch, however. The IMF on Tuesday upgraded the UK’s growth forecast and inflation is down from a generational high of 11.1% in 2022.
Flights to Rwanda are expected in the first half of July, while Home Office immigration figures published on Wednesday showed the number of visas granted to health and care workers and family members of students coming to the UK plummeted in the first quarter of this year compared to last year.
The Prime Minister summoned his Cabinet for an emergency meeting on Wednesday afternoon, calling some ministers back from foreign trips to sign off on the decision which was made by a core group of Downing Street advisers.
An autumn poll would potentially have allowed the Conservatives to point to interest rate cuts, the start of the Rwanda migration scheme and possible further tax cuts in a pre-election fiscal statement – none of which are now likely to happen much before polling day, if at all.
A Labour spokesman said the party’s manifesto is ready – although not yet printed – and the party would be ready to get candidates into what is believed to be between 80 and 100 seats that are currently unfilled.
He added: “We are fully ready to go. We have a fully organised and operational campaign ready to go and we think the country is crying out for a general election. So I would urge the Prime Minister to get on with it.”
The last time an election was held in July was in 1945, when Labour won by a land slide.